Friday, November 14, 2008

MOGUL: The Balloon To Nowhere

I heard ten thousand whispering… and nobody listening. Bob Dylan

Of all the ridiculous, insulting explanations for the Roswell crash, MOGUL has to be the worst. So let’s get it straight.

The number 4 flight of this experimental balloon MOGUL, the only one which could have landed near the ranch at the time….never went up.

That’s right. MOGUL Flight 4 was never launched. That is according to notes taken on that day. IT WAS A NO LAUNCH DAY BECAUSE OF BAD WEATHER JUST LIKE THE DAY BEFORE.

I will accept as almost definitive a written report, when there could be no motive to falsify it, over a 50-year old memory from a person who was there and who has an agenda, especially when that agenda is to prove Roswell was a MOGUL balloon. Yes, I’m talking about Charles Moore, defender of the faith, champion of the MOGUL. More on Moore later.

But now, let’s look at the material; challenger to the truth… MOGULS A Rawin Target:

This is not what Major Marcel and Commander Blanchard mistook for a flying saucer.

It’s a damned box kite! When all is said and done, and whatever the military calls it, a box kite is what it is and not difficult to recognize it, what it would look like. What it would look like if you found this out in the dirt, in a rocky field after raining all night in New Mexico in July.

Take this and put it out in the deasert

But maybe…if you were a very dumb intelligence officer and the military just happened to let you guard the Atomic Bomb, and along with a very dumb base commander, the two of you might somehow mistake this shiny box kite for a spaceship, we could make a crazy case for the whacky notions that abound in Debunkerville. But unfortunately, that box kite explanation doesn’t jive, since it looks more like what is shown in the second photo below this kite photo AFTER A MONTH OF DESERT SUN, RAIN, AND WIND.
By the material shown is the same material used on the Rarin Targets.
This box kite would have been sitting out in the desert around a month with rain, wind and the scorching heat of July in the New Mexico desert.
Would you drive out 150 miles round trip in the July desert heat for this trash heap?

We used to make box kites in the fifties out of balsa wood. We reinforced the ends with tape, or they were so fragile, they would break.

Let’s take a look at a MOGUL balloon after it has been exposed in the hot sun:

Enough is Enough.

Do you think an upstanding member of the community would’ve been held in custody for two weeks because of the pathetic material above?

And where was the 700 [seven hundred] feet of braided cord? Where was the microphone? Dry cell batteries and ….?
Oh, forget it. After the debunkers got away with 700 feet of missing cord, a missing microphone, disappearing dry cells and the rest was a done deal. When you distract people with math and wind trajectory, the obvious becomes obscured.

DVD Brad Sparks "A Skeptic" Destroys MOGUL Theory MUFON-
with new Info:

How about Cavett, the counter-intelligence officer right there with Marcel?

Yes, the same Cavett “who couldn’t remember even being stationed at Roswell base in the beginning” and saying against all other accounts including the newspaper; “…[the] debris field was just [a] weather balloon twenty feet across.” Cavett also claimed there was no well-known local rancher Mac Brazel from the sheep ranch, no Marcel, no strange wreckage.

We know Cavett is faking it here. We also know rancher Brazel could easily move his sheep around 20 feet of dried out balloon and a few random sticks of rotten, dried out balsa wood.

By the way, Cavett also says he didn’t see any flowery tape anywhere. Sorry, MOGUL true believers! Cavett’s wife Mary spoke to authors Carey & Schmitt in A Witness To Roswell about her husband’s absolute loyalty:
He won’t tell you anything, they told him not to and he won’t. That is why they picked him in the first place.”

Master Sergeant Rickets, counter-intelligence officer like Cavett, claims Cavett went twice out to two different sites. The wreckage site Rickets was asked to accompany Cavett to as a “second set of eyes” is described by Ricketts.

Rickett, walking out in the debris, was also joined by Edward Easley, Provost Marshal from the base:
“He picked up a 4 by 10 inch slightly curved [piece of ]wreckage, very thin wreckage. It was ‘light as a feather’. He thought it was aluminum and tried to bend it over his knee…Cavett watched him with Major Easley…Cavett to Easley about what Rickett was trying to do: “smart guy trying to do what we couldn’t”. Rickett replied, “For God’s sake what is this stuff made out of…? It can’t be plastic. But it feels like metal…”

Easley kept his oath till he died, repeating to every questioner that he couldn’t discuss the Roswell incident because he was sworn to secrecy.

But the MOGUL experiment was no longer a secret…so what was Easley’s secrecy oath really protecting?

When Cavetti died, he had never acted on a request by his old CIC AFOSI boss Doel Rees from Kirkland Air Force base to “please notify me if you call a press conference to tell the world what you know. I want to be there.”

Wow! The MOGUL that shocked the world!

Witness to Roswell: Unmasking the 60-Year Cover-Up
by Thomas J. Carey and Donald R. Schmitt, 2007, New Page Books [Paperback]

The GEO accounting investigation never interviewed credible officers whose
statements disagreed with their theory.

If you’re going to believe some of the witnesses’ testimony, like the claim about some strange kind of tape that could have fit a MOGUL balloon --if a MOGUL-type balloon had ever actually arrived there-- then you must accept those same people reporting aluminum without paper backing (a material type never used on MOGUL) along with the claim made by witnesses who handled it and who saw others handle it, that the substance was extremely strong, including the testimony that you couldn’t cut this strange material or burn it.

Also let me say one other thing about how the writing on these craft is asserted to be so fantastic as to discredit the witness testimony: there have been thousands of close encounters where strange written symbols have been described on craft. So something resembling “tape” that “could not be peeled away” may have been part of a real UFO.

Quote From Brig. Gen. Thomas Jefferson Dubose:
“Actually, it was a cover story, the balloon part of it...Somebody cooked up
the idea as a cover story ...we'll use this weather balloon…We were told this
is the story that is to be given to the press, and that is it, and anything else,
forget it…McMullen told me, ‘You are not to discuss this… this is more than top secret… it’s beyond that.’”

And I would go beyond this. If this case was beyond top secret, then we can bet a detailed and elaborate disinformation campaign had to be launched by both Army and Air Force right away, including planting fake debris and false rumors.

One truth that comes out of all this is hidden in plain view: the more the military examined the Roswell debris, the more they wanted to find its source.

Another macro-scale truth: officers who are bound by their security oaths and reported publicly the Roswell incident was a balloon have a perfect right to mislead. Yet another obvious conclusion the military record affords is career rewards. The better job you do in managing a hot potato like Roswell with a complex and successful coverup --like Blanchard did-- the better chance you have to go all the way to the top. What else was obvious from the record was that Blanchard was on his way to the top, until his heart attack.

And now for some technical fodder on fakery. Here’s the scoop on how debunkers turn into hoaxers with discoverable errors, a twisted case study within a case study offered originally by David Rudiak in his Virtually Strange Network post “Charles Moore's Mogul Balloon Trajectory Hoax”, from Errol Bruce-Knapp’s noted archival site, and mirrored in short form at :

“But when Brad Sparks and I went over Moore's tables and calculations in 2002, we discovered Moore's trajectory was fraudulent and that Moore had resorted to numerous cheats to get his balloon to his desired location. …

1) Moore's actual table balloon rise/fall rates seriously conflict with half of his given ones (thus crazy numbers like 100/12.1 = 350 or 852/2.8 = 100)
2) Moore claimed he was assuming the balloon had perfectly functioning equipment, but instead he secretly treated it as faulty. In setting up his calculation table, he gave it drastically shortened rise and fall times to drastically shorten the trajectory and prevent serious overshoot of the crash site.
3) Moore claimed to be calculating his final trajectory using one method (that was correct), but used another instead that was mathematically incorrect, again to shorten the trajectory.

“Well surely Prof. Moore has refuted your charges as baseless, right?
Wrong. The only word from Moore, via debunker Dave Thomas, is that Moore "didn't want to get into the math."

“If our charges had no merit, math would be the first thing Moore would argue.”

Let's get into the details. Did Moore claim that he was assuming Flight #4 used their best equipment, was similarly configured to and flew and well or better than the successful Flight #5 the next day?

Yes he did. This clearly implied he was also assuming Flight #4's altitude control equipment functioned properly, like Flight #5, and #4 should have had similar rise and fall profiles as #5.

So did Moore use a similar rise profile as Flight #5?

After setting it up his #4 trajectory table (rightly or wrongly) did Moore calculate the final trajectory properly?

No, he did not. He said he was doing it one way (which was one correct way of calculating it), but in reality, he did it differently. So again he was cheating by saying one thing and doing another. But worse, the way he really did it was mathematically bogus. Moore built various wind symmetries and correspondences into his table that were destroyed by his improper method of calculation. E.g., his table indicated identical wind values for the same altitude intervals on the up and down sides. But Moore carried all his wind values back through the previous altitude. This had the effect of applying the same winds to totally different altitude intervals on the up and down sides instead of applying them to the same intervals.”

A hoax built by a “True Believer”. Read the whole report on the MOGUL hoax below and remember: debunkers don’t have to prove anything because the only people paying attention don’t count in the strange upside-down world of Debunkerville.
Here is some Clips of another UFO incident that was easily explained - not.
Great DVD Clips:"The Phoenix Lights Doumentary"

My vaction To Peru ended quickly because of
I had an extreme case of Elievation Sickness.
Thanks To my wife and the Peruvian People
I am back to myself...whatever that means?

Joseph Capp
UFO Media Matters
A Non-Commercial Blog


  1. Glad your feeling better, and good post on Mogul. Thanks for taking the time.

  2. Thanks Bob,
    I am still trying to get someone into Peru where they are claiming displays by UFOs. I may have found someone.
    Another point I wanted to make on the MOGUL witness is... If Moore had been on the other side taking about a UFO experience. The debunkers would have never entertained him as a serious witness...His memory against a innocent note written at the time. No way. These double standards of loose mathematics and convenient memory for skeptics underline the real voodoo scientist here.

    Joe Capp
    UFO Media Matters
    Non-Commercial Blog

  3. Nice one, Joseph. I think this is the best blog I've seen you done so far. You broke points and counterpoints down beautifully. Very good insight.

    Too bad media never ever retracts any stories to set the history straight. It would be so easy to do. That's the biggest problem I personally have with journalism. They really DO have integrity issues within their profession on so many levels.

    The circumstantial evidence suggest something completely different to the official Roswell story. With all the physical evidence now lacking, basically it all comes down to who do you believe - the people involved or the Gov't?

    Daniel Bergh, Sweden.

  4. Dear Daniel,
    the Mogul balloon theroy just reminds how easily the people are fooled even very intelligent people. A prime example of how this happens is the TV show "Myth Busters" They challanged Schmitt and Cary of A Witnesss to Roswell" fame on Mogul. But they were smart the challanled back will take part if you constuct a real Mogul and leave it out in the deasert sun and rain for a week to see what it looks like. They withdrew the offer and it is simple why. No one in there right mind would mistake some balloons and box kites for a flying saucer and seeing the real MOGUL on TV the way it must have looked laying out in the deasert would end all conjecture.
    JOe Capp
    UFO Media Matters